With Election Day approaching in less than two weeks, early voting data from North Carolina reveals a significant decline in participation among Black voters compared to the last presidential election. As of Wednesday, the state reported that Black voters had cast approximately 207,000 fewer ballots, reflecting a nearly 40% decrease from the 2020 election.

This drop raises critical questions regarding the Democratic Party’s prospects in a pivotal battleground state. Former President Barack Obama recently expressed concerns about this trend, particularly regarding Black men’s enthusiasm for Vice President Kamala Harris. Speaking at a rally in Charlotte on Friday, Obama noted that he has not witnessed the same level of excitement from Black men for Harris as he did during his own campaigns. “Part of it makes me think you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president,” he remarked during a gathering of Black men in Pennsylvania earlier this month.

Black voters represent a crucial demographic for Democrats in North Carolina, but local party officials and political analysts have offered mixed interpretations of the early voting statistics. Some experts are skeptical about the Democrats’ ability to mobilize Black voters before Election Day. Others caution that comparisons to 2020, a year marked by the pandemic, might skew perceptions of current voter sentiment.

Harvey Gantt, the first Black mayor of Charlotte, voiced his alarm at the current early voting numbers. “I think we’ve got a problem. I’m very concerned about that,” he stated. “I would have hoped the vote would have been bigger, particularly the Democratic vote. We’ve got a great candidate, and I’m just wondering about why that’s the case.”

Comparing current data to that of October 23, 2020, reveals that 566,162 Black voters had participated in early voting or mail-in ballots, whereas this year only 358,880 have done so—a stark difference of over 207,000 votes. Michael Bitzer, chair of the politics department at Catawba College, urged caution in drawing conclusions from the 2020 figures, noting that the pandemic led to an unprecedented number of mail-in ballots. “We need to be extremely cautious in making the 2020 comparison,” Bitzer explained. “In the midst of the pandemic, 19% of all votes cast were mail-in. The typical mail-in turnout is usually around 3% to 5%.”

As the pandemic recedes in significance, the question remains whether voters who relied on mail-in ballots in the last election will choose to vote early or on Election Day this time around. Democrats are also downplaying a rise in Republican early voting, which Donald Trump has actively encouraged, asserting that it could mitigate the issues that contributed to his losses in crucial states during the 2020 election.

As of Wednesday, Republicans had a slight edge over Democrats in early voting, with a difference of more than 3,300 ballots. However, Julia Buckner, lead organizer for the Mecklenburg County Democrats, expressed confidence in the Democratic turnout. “Yes, there are some conservative voters showing up at the polls, but our team far outnumbers them,” she stated. “These are not new voters for the conservatives. The people voting on the conservative side are those who typically vote on Election Day.”

While some analysts assert that this early turnout indicates a surge of Republican enthusiasm, others caution that the Democrats still face challenges in mobilizing Black voters before the election. Eric Heberlig, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, noted a consistent decline in Black voter turnout in North Carolina since Obama’s elections. He attributes this trend to “unfulfilled promises” from Democrats regarding issues such as police reform and voting rights for former felons.

“They promised that it would be the land of milk and honey, and it isn’t,” Heberlig remarked. He stressed that the Democratic Party must prioritize securing Black votes in the limited time remaining, although he acknowledged the difficulty of reversing this trend.

In response to Obama’s critiques, local Democrats and analysts maintain that while some hesitancy may exist among Black men regarding Harris, it is likely limited in scope. Jamie Harrison, chair of the Democratic National Committee, emphasized the need for Black men to recognize the vital contributions of Black women. “I think it’s important for us to know that many of our families, but for the Black women in them, would not be as successful, would not thrive and flourish as they do now,” he said.

Dr. Monty Witherspoon, a local pastor and school board member, echoed the urgency of the election, stating, “This election has more than just historical significance as the first Black woman president… This is for our children. You know this election is going to have consequences, impacts for the next 50 years or more.”

As the election date draws nearer, Leah Smart, a senior organizer for the Mecklenburg County Democratic Party, expressed confidence in Black voter turnout. “There’s never been a problem with the Black vote. Like we turn up and we turn out,” she asserted. “We know what we’re doing.”