Donald Trump, the former president and GOP front-runner, is poised to make history by securing a substantial share of the Black vote in the upcoming presidential election, according to national and swing state polls reviewed by Bloomberg. Polls indicate Trump’s support among African Americans ranging from 14 to 30 percent, surpassing any previous Republican candidate’s performance in this demographic.

The potential impact of Trump’s increasing support within the Black community is substantial, given the historical significance of Black voters in elections. The NAACP estimates that in the 1960 presidential election, 32 percent of Black voters supported Richard Nixon, and Trump’s current projections could surpass this benchmark. The Black population has grown significantly since then, making their voting influence even more pronounced.

Despite the Democratic President Joe Biden securing 92 percent of the Black vote in 2020, recent polls suggest a decline in his favorability among Black voters in swing states. According to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll, Biden’s favorability among Black voters in seven swing states slipped by 7 percentage points from October to December 2023, settling at 61 percent. In contrast, Trump’s favorability remained steady at around 25 percent during the same period.

Experts attribute Trump’s potential success with Black voters to economic reasons. Mary Frances Berry, a historian at the University of Pennsylvania, noted that some Black voters, particularly males, cite economic improvements under Trump, such as easier access to federal loans for small business owners. Additionally, concerns about rising prices for basic needs and the perceived backlash against police accountability measures contribute to Trump’s appeal among this demographic.

Mark Shanahan, an associate professor in politics at the University of Surrey, highlighted Biden’s perceived lack of specific offerings to the African American community and the potential impact on Black voter turnout. He emphasized the need for Biden to address economic struggles and demonstrate accessibility to the American Dream for all citizens.

Both the Trump campaign and the Democratic National Committee are actively strategizing to secure or retain Black support. Jason Miller, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, expressed their commitment to making the strongest effort yet with the African-American community. Simultaneously, Jaime Harrison, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, emphasized ongoing efforts to engage and mobilize Black voters, acknowledging the importance of not taking their support for granted.

As the 2024 election looms, Trump’s potential historic support among Black voters could reshape the electoral landscape, with recent analysis suggesting he would secure at least 285 electoral votes if the election were held today.