Kamala Harris’s ability to secure the presidency for the Democratic Party in the upcoming November 2024 election hinges significantly on her support among black voters, particularly in swing states. These states, which are politically divided between Republicans and Democrats, will play a decisive role in determining the election’s outcome.

As of June 2024, President Biden faced declining poll numbers, trailing behind former President Donald Trump in key battlegrounds. Following a lackluster performance in a critical debate, Biden made the difficult decision to withdraw from the race on July 21, just weeks before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. He subsequently announced his full endorsement of Vice President Harris as his successor.

At the Democratic National Convention, held from August 19 to 22, Harris received an overwhelming 99% of delegate votes to become the party’s presidential nominee. Her acceptance speech energized the Democratic base, and she quickly gained endorsements from numerous party leaders while raising millions in campaign funds.

Harris, the first female, black, South Asian, and Jamaican Vice President in U.S. history, has generated optimism about her potential to secure substantial support from black voters, especially in crucial swing states. A graduate of Howard University, she holds degrees in political science and economics, as well as a law degree from the University of California. Prior to her vice presidency, Harris served as a U.S. Senator from California and was the state’s Attorney General from 2011 to 2017.

Drawing from her experiences as a child of the Civil Rights Movement, Harris frequently emphasizes her background in activism, citing her parents’ involvement in 1960s civil rights struggles. She has spoken about her own experiences with school desegregation and has openly challenged Biden on issues of racial justice, notably during the first presidential debate in 2019.

Harris has been active in leading efforts to address police reform, particularly in the wake of high-profile incidents involving police violence against black Americans. Her legislative initiatives during the height of the Black Lives Matter movement have positioned her as a prominent advocate for civil rights.

Her campaign policies also resonate with many black and brown voters. Harris proposes extending the child tax credit, banning fracking, tackling corporate price-gouging, and increasing the federal minimum wage, all issues that align with the concerns of struggling families.

While opinion polls indicate she enjoys majority support among black voters—77% overall and an impressive 82% in swing states—there are nuances in the data. For comparison, former President Obama captured 93%-95% of the black vote in 2012, and Biden garnered 89% in 2020. High levels of black voter turnout have historically been essential for Democratic success in swing states, such as Pennsylvania, where Biden needed over 80% of the black vote to secure victory.

Analysis of Harris’s support shows she performs exceptionally well among black women, where approval rates reach approximately 95%, and older voters aged 50 and over, at around 89%. However, her appeal diminishes among younger voters, particularly young black men, where support drops to 75%, with over 16% favoring Trump. Among younger, less-educated black men, her support is even lower, at just 50%, raising concerns about her ability to replicate the high turnout levels seen in previous elections.

Recent reports have highlighted challenges in her appeal to black men, with many citing economic concerns and perceptions regarding her previous role as Attorney General. Conversely, her strong backing from black women is attributed to her advocacy for voting rights, immigration reform, and reproductive rights, reflecting the critical role that black women play within the Democratic Party.

The upcoming election is crucial not only for the Democratic Party but for the future of American democracy. Black voters, who comprise approximately 13% of the U.S. population, represent a vital constituency that could shape the political landscape. The stakes are high, encompassing key issues such as reproductive rights, healthcare access, climate change, and immigration policies.

As the nation prepares for the election on November 4, 2024, the outcome will reveal whether America is ready to embrace a woman of color as its president and to uphold the values of democracy in a time of increasing division.